Trading Analysis - 4th Oct 2018
4 October 2018
Yesterday's sellers strike seems to have had a salutary effect on the Market Makers - they have called the bottom and are moving the SP up on minimal volumes. They will continue until they can persuade someone to sell at this low level.
Very tight spread right now - looks like the risk of being spiked by MMs has retreated and further buying will inevitably push the SP up.
Again minimal significant selling apart from the delayed sells at 10:33 (100K) and 12:05 (250K) - this still leaves Market Makers needing more than 320,000 shares to balance their books.
End of Day
The sellers strike seems to have had a significant effect - apart from a 250K sell around 12:15 the only other significant sells are a series of 100K sells (marked in green) that popped up at various points during the day.
These don't look like a coordinated attempt to short, now would be a very bad time to consider doing that, with the newly emergent upward momentum. This instead looks like a shareholder top-slicing by selling into buying strength. With the SP liable to bounce up some way from here if their hope is to be able to buy back at a lower price then they could be in trouble - better to buy back today and give the SP another helpful kick up - such is the fate of the accidental day trader.
813,000 more buys than sells - the market makers may be hoping that First Island continue to feed them shares at this price and that First Island have not set a series of increasing sell prices, now exhausted up to c. 32p - if the latter then they will need to chase the price up to that level pretty quickly.
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