Trading Analysis - 19th Dec 2018


19 December 2018


Strong opening followed by a very obvious attempt to spike buyers at 47.30p (walked down to sub 47p) - this did not last long as there was strong buying (2x £100K Buys) at 8:12 and 8:15 - only just revealed, 2 hours later.

The price then appeared to rise quite organically to around 48.30p at which point it seems there must have been a significant Sell applied. 45 minutes of consolidation around 47.70p led to a series of 50K Sells which dropped the price paid by MM's for shares back down to only 47.50p. A couple of 100K Sells duly obliged the MM's - however they still appear to have sold >400K more shares to PI's than they have bought so far today. 

End of Day

After the somewhat predictable first couple of hours we had a bit of a walkdown, recovery, stasis, MM confusion, half-baked short-term short by new boys on the block BERB, a fishing expedition and then a bit of MM panic towards the close.

All very exciting for those students of the RSP (the real market that you don't see on - boring and/or confusing for everyone else. Put simply different Market Makers were tumbling over themselves today to try and control the price - some were caught short and needed to buy, others were proudly parading how many shares they had to sell and then minutes later running away when somebody stepped up to the counter to actually buy those shares.

In terms of large trades there are a number of large (100K-300K) and very large (300K+) trades which dominate the nett trade trace shown above. At 9:43 there was what appeared to be a 1M Buy, though the Bid and Ask were untouched, suggesting it had been a worked trade from the previous hour or so. 

Around 1:25pm there were a number of large trades as shown below:

The two highlighted Sells are the ones shown lying well below the Bid in the centre of the chart - the 300K buy at 13:30 similarly lies well above the ask, at 48.625p. I believe that the 2x 300K are some kind of rollover feature. The out of normal trading range similarity with the 750K trade in the same time window suggests to me that we shall see a similarly sized Buy reported some way above 48.50p at some point in the future.

After hours we see the following reported:

We have our now regular 817,323 TNCP trade which we believe has no bearing on real traded shares. At 16:43 we have the interesting 1,414,998 and 435,002 sized trades - as soon as you look at these on a time ordered table you immediately spot the 002 and 998 matching ends and identify that these trades sum to precisely 1.85Million. If anyone is trying to obscure the nature of these obviously connected trades then they will have to try a bit harder in future.

On the surface of it this would appear to leave todays trading with something like 400K more Sells than Buys, however in the last week we have become used to very significant trades being reported a day or more late. Plus ça change.

Tomorrow will be very interesting given the lack of shares available at the close. Remember that unless you Buy in the first minute or so you may well end up spending more than you really need to on shares. If you do miss the early train it is sometimes useful to wait until the rush hour is over.

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